Obesity pills from Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk near US launch

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to Launch Oral Obesity Drugs

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, two pharmaceutical giants, are gearing up to take their rivalry in weight-loss medications to the next level with the introduction of oral obesity drugs. Both companies are expected to launch their respective pills in the US next year, pending regulatory approval. This move is set to expand the reach of GLP-1s, a class of medicine currently dominated by weekly shots, to a broader audience through daily pills.

The potential impact of these oral drugs on the market is significant, with analysts predicting that they could represent about 20% of the estimated $80 billion market for GLP-1 obesity drugs by 2030. However, the recent performance of Lilly’s pill in a late-stage trial, which showed less weight loss than anticipated, has raised questions about the adoption rate and market dominance of these oral medications.

Comparing the Pills

Doctors and analysts will get a closer look at how Lilly’s and Novo’s pills compare in the coming months when the results of a head-to-head trial are released. The trial, which aims to measure the reduction of blood sugar levels in people with Type 2 diabetes, will also assess weight loss. Lilly’s Chief Scientific Officer, Dan Skovronsky, expressed confidence in their pill, orforglipron, stating that the company would not have undertaken the trial unless they believed it would fare well against Novo’s oral semaglutide.

Novo’s Chief Scientific Officer, Martin Holst Lange, countered that the data speaks for itself, with Novo’s pill showing higher efficacy and fewer discontinuations in separate trials. Notably, neither Novo’s nor Lilly’s pill has matched the efficacy of Lilly’s shot, Zepbound, which can help individuals lose over 20% of their body weight. In contrast, orforglipron has produced about 12% weight loss, while oral semaglutide has led to about 17%.

Market Expectations and Consumer Preferences

Despite the differences in efficacy, Wall Street anticipates that pills will significantly impact the obesity drug market. The convenience and ease of use of oral medications could make them more appealing to patients, potentially shifting the market dynamics. Skovronsky believes that pills could become the primary treatment for obesity worldwide, with oral drugs possibly having a larger market share than injectables. He points out that most patients prioritize factors like supply and convenience over the amount of weight they can lose.

Analysts, such as BMO Capital Markets’ Evan Seigerman, note that orforglipron has advantages, including being a small molecule drug that is easier to manufacture and lacks the food and water restrictions associated with Novo’s oral option. However, the recent trial results have led to adjustments in market share estimates, with some analysts moving their predictions from orforglipron to oral semaglutide.

As the market continues to evolve, it’s clear that the competition between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will be intense. The outcome will depend not only on the science behind the drugs but also on how they are received by patients and doctors. With new management at Novo Nordisk, the company is likely to push for a successful launch, making the race for dominance in the oral obesity drug market even more competitive.