Global Trends and Politics
American Eagle (AEO) Earnings Q4 2024

American Eagle Warns of Slower Start to Year, Shares Fall 5%
Company Sees Less Robust Demand and Colder Weather
American Eagle, the popular retailer, warned investors on Wednesday that consumers are pulling back on spending, leading to a "slower start" to the year than expected. The company’s CEO, Jay Schottenstein, stated that the first quarter is off to a slower start, reflecting less robust demand and colder weather.
Weak Guidance and Cautious Commentary
The downbeat commentary, which came with weak guidance for the current quarter and year ahead, is the latest warning sign that the consumer might be slowing down as shoppers contend with persistent inflation and concerns around tariffs. Over the past couple of weeks, a string of other retailers, including both strong companies and ones that tend to struggle, have issued weak guidance and cautious commentary about the current macroeconomic conditions and warned 2025 might be a weaker than expected year for sales.
Holiday Results and Comparable Sales
Beyond its outlook, American Eagle issued mixed holiday results and comparable sales that beat expectations. Here’s how the apparel company did in its fiscal fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: 54 cents vs. 50 cents expected
- Revenue: $1.60 billion vs. $1.60 billion expected
Quarterly Results
The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 1 was $104 million, or 54 cents per share, compared with $6.31 million, or 3 cents per share, a year earlier. Sales dropped to $1.60 billion, down slightly from $1.68 billion a year earlier. Comparable sales, which don’t include the effect of one less selling week, were up 3% during the quarter, ahead of expectations of up 2.1%, according to StreetAccount.
Outlook and Challenges
For the current quarter, American Eagle is expecting to see a mid-single-digit decline in sales, while analysts expected revenue to increase 1.3%. For the full year, it is expecting sales to decline by a low single digit, compared with expectations of 3% growth, according to LSEG. The company is also expecting Aerie sales to be positive for the year but that growth will be offset by a steeper decline at the American Eagle banner. Tariffs are also expected to weigh on results, with a $5 million to $10 million hit from the new duties in fiscal 2025.
Strategic Priorities
As the company navigates through an uncertain consumer and operating landscape, it will remain focused on its long-term strategic priorities, including strengthening its top line, managing inventory, and reducing expenses. The company has made significant strides in improving profitability over the past year but has seen slower sales growth.
Conclusion
American Eagle’s warning of a slower start to the year is a sign that the consumer might be slowing down due to persistent inflation and concerns around tariffs. The company’s mixed holiday results and comparable sales that beat expectations are a positive sign, but its weak guidance and cautious commentary are a concern. As the company looks to the future, it will need to continue to focus on its long-term strategic priorities to stay competitive in a challenging retail landscape.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What did American Eagle warn investors about?
A: American Eagle warned investors that consumers are pulling back on spending, leading to a "slower start" to the year than expected.
Q: What is the company’s outlook for the current quarter and year ahead?
A: American Eagle expects to see a mid-single-digit decline in sales for the current quarter and a low single-digit decline in sales for the full year, compared with expectations of 1.3% growth.
Q: What are the company’s strategic priorities?
A: The company will remain focused on strengthening its top line, managing inventory, and reducing expenses as it navigates through an uncertain consumer and operating landscape.
Global Trends and Politics
Tourists Cross Borders, But in Opposite Directions

Introduction to the Trend
Americans are traveling abroad in droves, while the number of visitors to the United States is falling. This emerging trend in the $11 trillion global travel industry is raising concerns for the U.S. travel industry, which brings in about $1 trillion a year. According to data from the International Trade Administration, foreign visitors to the United States by air fell nearly 10% in March from the same month a year earlier and nearly 13% from before the pandemic to 4.54 million people.
The Imbalance in Travel
The imbalance between Americans traveling abroad and foreigners visiting the U.S. could further deepen the more than $50 billion gap between what the U.S. generates through travel and tourism services and what Americans spend abroad. Including land border crossings, inbound visitors to the U.S. fell 14% in March from last year. This trend could lead to a loss of $21 billion in exports tied to travel, as travel spending from abroad within the U.S. is counted as an export.
Factors Contributing to the Decline
Several factors are contributing to the decline in international visitors to the U.S., including an on-again, off-again trade war, high-profile detentions of visitors, and a strong U.S. dollar. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric about taking over countries like Canada and travel warnings have also not helped to drum up demand from international travelers. The visa-approval process is another area that needs to be streamlined, according to American Airlines CEO Robert Isom.
Impact on the Economy
The decline in foreigners’ travel spend in the U.S. could subtract around 0.1% from gross domestic product this year, according to JPMorgan. This points to potentially another channel to consider in assessing the effect of tariffs on economic activity. Concerns around detentions of foreign visitors, sometimes by accident, are only compounding this effect.
The Rise of International Travel by Americans
On the other hand, U.S. citizens flying abroad increased 1.6% from last March and are up 22% from 2019 to 6.56 million travelers. Many Americans are considering international travel more than domestic travel, partly because they want to splash out on college graduation trips since their kids largely missed out on high school commencement celebrations during Covid.
Industry Insights
United Airlines said that advanced bookings earlier this month are stable, and premium-cabin sales are up 17%, while international demand has risen 5%. Delta’s president, Glen Hauenstein, is optimistic that the trend will continue, and said cash sales for international travel are coming in ahead of the same point last year. Many working Americans and retirees are on edge with recent market tumult, but wealthy and aging travelers, particularly in the pricey front of the plane, are helping to offset that.
Conclusion
The trend of Americans traveling abroad while foreigners visit the U.S. less often is a concern for the U.S. travel industry. Factors such as trade wars, detentions, and a strong U.S. dollar are contributing to the decline in international visitors. However, the rise of international travel by Americans is helping to soften the blow. The industry needs to find ways to make the U.S. a more welcoming destination for international travelers.
FAQs
Q: Why are fewer foreigners visiting the U.S.?
A: Several factors are contributing to the decline, including an on-again, off-again trade war, high-profile detentions of visitors, and a strong U.S. dollar.
Q: How is the decline in international visitors affecting the U.S. economy?
A: The decline could subtract around 0.1% from gross domestic product this year and lead to a loss of $21 billion in exports tied to travel.
Q: Why are Americans traveling abroad more?
A: Many Americans are considering international travel more than domestic travel, partly because they want to splash out on college graduation trips since their kids largely missed out on high school commencement celebrations during Covid.
Q: How are airlines responding to the trend?
A: Airlines such as United and Delta are seeing an increase in international demand and are optimistic that the trend will continue.
Q: What can be done to make the U.S. a more welcoming destination for international travelers?
A: Streamlining the visa-approval process and improving the overall travel experience are some ways to make the U.S. a more welcoming destination for international travelers.
Global Trends and Politics
European Labor Market in Flux: Impact of Brexit on Workers and Unions

Global labor movement updates indicate a significant shift in the European labor market, particularly with the impending Brexit. The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union has sent shockwaves across the continent, affecting workers and unions alike. In this article, we will delve into the impact of Brexit on the European labor market, exploring the challenges and opportunities that arise from this seismic change.
Background and Context
The Brexit referendum, held in June 2016, marked a pivotal moment in European history. The UK’s decision to leave the EU has sparked a chain reaction, influencing various aspects of the economy, including the labor market. With the free movement of people between the UK and EU coming to an end, workers and unions are facing unprecedented challenges. The European labor market, known for its diversity and mobility, is now in a state of flux.
Free Movement and its Implications
The free movement of people within the EU has been a cornerstone of the European labor market. Workers from EU countries have been able to live and work in the UK, and vice versa, without restrictions. However, with Brexit, this freedom is under threat. The UK government has introduced a points-based immigration system, which will prioritize skilled workers. This move is expected to reduce the number of low-skilled workers entering the UK, potentially leading to labor shortages in certain sectors.
Impact on Workers
The impact of Brexit on workers is multifaceted. Some of the key concerns include job security, wages, and working conditions. With the UK’s departure from the EU, workers may face reduced job opportunities, as companies may choose to relocate to EU countries to maintain access to the single market. Additionally, the weakening of workers’ rights, previously protected by EU laws, is a significant concern. The UK government has announced plans to review and potentially repeal certain EU-derived employment laws, which could lead to a decline in working conditions.
Case Study: The NHS and Healthcare Workers
The National Health Service (NHS) in the UK is a prime example of the impact of Brexit on workers. The NHS relies heavily on EU nationals, with approximately 10% of its workforce hailing from EU countries. The uncertainty surrounding Brexit has led to a significant increase in EU nationals leaving the NHS, citing concerns over their future in the UK. This exodus has resulted in staffing shortages, putting pressure on the already-strained healthcare system.
Impact on Unions
Unions are also facing significant challenges in the wake of Brexit. The UK’s departure from the EU has created uncertainty around workers’ rights, making it difficult for unions to negotiate on behalf of their members. The potential repeal of EU-derived employment laws could weaken the bargaining power of unions, making it harder for them to protect workers’ interests. Furthermore, the rise of anti-union sentiment in the UK has led to increased hostility towards unions, making it challenging for them to operate effectively.
Response from European Unions
European unions have been vocal about their concerns regarding Brexit. The European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) has called for the UK government to guarantee workers’ rights and ensure that Brexit does not lead to a race to the bottom in terms of working conditions. The ETUC has also emphasized the need for close cooperation between UK and EU unions to protect workers’ interests in the post-Brexit era.
Opportunities and Challenges
While Brexit presents significant challenges, it also offers opportunities for growth and reform. The UK’s departure from the EU could lead to a re-evaluation of the European labor market, with a focus on creating a more equitable and sustainable system. The rise of new technologies and industries could create new job opportunities, and the UK’s newfound freedom to negotiate its own trade agreements could lead to increased investment and economic growth.
Investing in Skills and Training
To mitigate the negative impacts of Brexit, investing in skills and training is crucial. The UK government has announced plans to increase funding for apprenticeships and vocational training, aiming to equip workers with the skills needed to thrive in a post-Brexit economy. This focus on upskilling and reskilling could lead to a more adaptable and resilient workforce, better equipped to navigate the challenges of a rapidly changing labor market.
Conclusion
The European labor market is in a state of flux, with Brexit posing significant challenges for workers and unions. While the UK’s departure from the EU creates uncertainty, it also offers opportunities for growth and reform. To navigate this new landscape, it is essential to prioritize workers’ rights, invest in skills and training, and foster close cooperation between UK and EU unions. As the European labor market continues to evolve, it is crucial to ensure that the needs of workers are at the forefront of policy decisions.
FAQs
Q: What is the impact of Brexit on workers’ rights in the UK?
A: The UK’s departure from the EU has created uncertainty around workers’ rights, with the potential repeal of EU-derived employment laws.
Q: How will Brexit affect the NHS and healthcare workers?
A: The NHS relies heavily on EU nationals, and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit has led to a significant increase in EU nationals leaving the NHS, resulting in staffing shortages.
Q: What is the response from European unions to Brexit?
A: European unions have called for the UK government to guarantee workers’ rights and ensure that Brexit does not lead to a race to the bottom in terms of working conditions.
Q: What opportunities arise from Brexit for the European labor market?
A: Brexit could lead to a re-evaluation of the European labor market, with a focus on creating a more equitable and sustainable system, and the rise of new technologies and industries could create new job opportunities.
Q: How can the UK government mitigate the negative impacts of Brexit on workers?
A: Investing in skills and training, and prioritizing workers’ rights, are crucial to mitigating the negative impacts of Brexit on workers.
Global Trends and Politics
Groceries on Credit

Introduction to the Growing Trend of Buy Now, Pay Later Loans
A growing number of Americans are using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries, and more people are paying those bills late, according to new Lending Tree data released Friday. The figures are the latest indicator that some consumers are cracking under the pressure of an uncertain economy and are having trouble affording essentials such as groceries as they contend with persistent inflation, high interest rates and concerns around tariffs.
The Rise of Buy Now, Pay Later Loans for Groceries
In a survey conducted April 2-3 of 2,000 U.S. consumers ages 18 to 79, around half reported having used buy now, pay later services. Of those consumers, 25% of respondents said they were using BNPL loans to buy groceries, up from 14% in 2024 and 21% in 2023, the firm said. This significant increase in the use of BNPL loans for groceries highlights the financial struggles many Americans are facing.
Late Payments on Buy Now, Pay Later Loans
Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, up from 34% in the year prior, the survey found. Lending Tree’s chief consumer finance analyst, Matt Schulz, said that of those respondents who said they paid a BNPL bill late, most said it was by no more than a week or so. This suggests that while many consumers are struggling to make payments on time, they are generally able to catch up relatively quickly.
The Economic Factors Contributing to the Trend
"A lot of people are struggling and looking for ways to extend their budget," Schulz said. "Inflation is still a problem. Interest rates are still really high. There’s a lot of uncertainty around tariffs and other economic issues, and it’s all going to add up to a lot of people looking for ways to extend their budget however they can." These economic factors are driving consumers to seek alternative financing options, such as BNPL loans, to make ends meet.
The Risks of Buy Now, Pay Later Loans
The loans, which allow consumers to split up purchases into several smaller payments, are a popular alternative to credit cards because they often don’t charge interest. But consumers can see high fees if they pay late, and they can run into problems if they stack up multiple loans. In Lending Tree’s survey, 60% of BNPL users said they’ve had multiple loans at once, with nearly a fourth saying they have held three or more at once. This highlights the potential risks of using BNPL loans, particularly if consumers are not careful with their finances.
Conclusion
The growing trend of using buy now, pay later loans to buy groceries and the increasing number of late payments on these loans are concerning indicators of the financial struggles many Americans are facing. As the economy continues to experience uncertainty, it is essential for consumers to be cautious when using these loans and to carefully manage their finances to avoid potential pitfalls.
FAQs
Q: What is the main reason for the growing trend of using buy now, pay later loans for groceries?
A: The main reason is the financial struggles many Americans are facing due to persistent inflation, high interest rates, and concerns around tariffs.
Q: How many respondents in the Lending Tree survey reported using BNPL loans to buy groceries?
A: 25% of respondents who used BNPL services reported using them to buy groceries.
Q: What is the risk of using buy now, pay later loans?
A: The risk of using BNPL loans includes high fees if payments are late and potential problems if multiple loans are stacked up at once.
Q: What percentage of BNPL users reported having multiple loans at once?
A: 60% of BNPL users reported having multiple loans at once, with nearly a fourth saying they have held three or more at once.
Q: What is the advice for consumers using buy now, pay later loans?
A: Consumers should be cautious when using these loans and carefully manage their finances to avoid potential pitfalls.
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