Digital Storage Evolution 2025

Semiconductor Wafer: Solid-State Non-Volatile Memory and Storage

Introduction

This article discusses the latest developments and projections for solid-state non-volatile memory and storage, including flash memory, DRAM, and non-volatile memories like MRAM, RRAM, FRAM, and PCM. We will also explore computer architectures using these technologies, such as CXL and UCIe.

Memory and Storage Market Trends

Memory and storage technologies began to recover in the 4th quarter of 2023 after a severe correction in 2022 and most of 2023. However, 2024 has not shown steady growth, despite predictions that AI-powered PCs and smart phones would drive increased memory demand. According to TrendForce, the demand for current DRAM products is trending downward due to declining demand, and advanced product demand is uncertain going into 2025.

High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM)

High-bandwidth memory (HBM) is expected to experience considerable growth in 2025 as NVIDIA and other suppliers of chiplet-based AI devices expand production to meet anticipated demand. The top four hyperscalers spent $58.9B on capex in Q3 2024, a 63% annual growth rate, but it is unclear whether revenue growth will match this capex spend.

NAND Flash Market

The NAND flash market is also experiencing lower prices, especially for NAND sold into consumer applications such as smart phones, where demand has tapered off. On the enterprise and data center side, SSD companies are experiencing more demand and are introducing new products such as high-capacity, 60-100TB+, SSDs with QLC flash to try and take some demand from nearline HDDs.

Emerging Memories

The market for non-volatile memories such as magnetic random access memory (MRAM), resistive RAM (ReRAM), ferroelectric RAM (FRAM), and phase change memory (PCM) continues to develop, particularly for embedded memories. In our 2024 report on non-volatile memories, we looked into developments and projections. The first widespread use of emerging memories is for embedded memory on a CMOS logic chip, replacing NOR flash, which has reached its scaling limit at 28nm.

Conclusion

AI is driving demand for DRAM and NAND, although the big growth is in data centers, with some concern about the current rate of data center capex spending. Products using non-volatile memories in embedded applications are growing. The market for emerging memories is expected to experience rapid revenue growth, driven by their displacement of SRAM, NOR flash, and some DRAM.

FAQs

Q: What is the current trend in the memory and storage market?
A: The memory and storage market has been recovering since the 4th quarter of 2023, but 2024 has not shown steady growth.

Q: What is the forecast for DRAM demand in 2025?
A: The demand for current DRAM products is trending downward due to declining demand, and advanced product demand is uncertain going into 2025.

Q: What is the growth expected for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in 2025?
A: HBM is expected to experience considerable growth in 2025 as NVIDIA and other suppliers of chiplet-based AI devices expand production to meet anticipated demand.

Q: What is the current state of the NAND flash market?
A: The NAND flash market is experiencing lower prices, especially for NAND sold into consumer applications such as smart phones, where demand has tapered off.