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Home Sales Drop Sharply in January as Prices Hit High

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Home Sales Drop Sharply in January as Prices Hit High

U.S. Housing Market Continues to Weaken as Mortgage Rates Remain High

The U.S. housing market continues to face challenges as potential buyers grapple with stubbornly high mortgage rates, elevated prices, and limited supply of listings.

January Sales See Decline

According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homes fell 4.9% in January from the prior month to 4.08 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis. This is a 15-year low. While sales were 2% higher than January 2024, the market is still struggling to recover.

Mortgage Rates Refuse to Budge

"Mortgage rates have refused to budge for several months despite multiple rounds of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. "When combined with elevated home prices, housing affordability remains a major challenge."

Inventory Gains, but Still Limited

There were 1.18 million homes for sale at the end of January, an increase of 3.5% from December and 17% from January 2024. However, this still leaves the market with a 3.5-month supply, which is below the six-month supply considered balanced between buyer and seller.

Home Prices Continue to Rise

The median price of a home sold in January was $396,900, up 4.8% from the year before and the highest price ever for the month of January. All four regions tracked by NAR saw price gains. About 15% of homes sold above list price, virtually unchanged from 16% in both the previous month and the year-earlier period.

First-Time Buyers Struggle

First-time buyers are still struggling to enter the market, accounting for 28% of sales. This is well below historical averages of about 40%. All-cash offers made up 29% of sales, which is historically high but down from 32% the year before.

Regional Variations

Home sales are faring better at higher price points, while falling at lower price points. For example, sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 dropped 1.2% year over year, while homes priced over $1 million rose nearly 27% from the year before.

Realtors Report Weak Buyer Traffic

Realtors are reporting weak buyer traffic in January. "Realtors are putting more signs up, but the buyers are not coming," said Yun.

Conclusion

The U.S. housing market continues to face significant challenges, with high mortgage rates, elevated prices, and limited supply of listings. While there are some signs of improvement, such as an increase in inventory, the market remains far from balanced.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the current state of the U.S. housing market?
A: The market is weakening, with sales declining and prices remaining high.

Q: Why are mortgage rates remaining high?
A: Despite multiple rounds of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates have refused to budge.

Q: What is the current state of home prices?
A: Home prices continue to rise, with the median price reaching a record high in January.

Q: How are first-time buyers faring in the market?
A: First-time buyers are still struggling, accounting for only 28% of sales, which is well below historical averages.

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Global Trends and Politics

Medical Product Makers Split Over Trump Tariffs

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Medical Product Makers Split Over Trump Tariffs

Introduction to Tariffs in the Medical Community

President Donald Trump’s tariffs are creating a divide in the medical community. Medical devices and protective gear made in China, Mexico, and Canada were exempt from duties during the first Trump administration, but so far have not gotten a reprieve from his newest round of levies. While device makers who would take a big hit from the tariffs are pushing for a new carve out, the makers of personal protective equipment — who stand to benefit from the barriers — are not. The duties could also increase costs for hospitals — and therefore patients — and reduce access to critical equipment and care.

Concerns from Medical Technology and Device Makers

"MedTech supply chain leaders are already reporting supply chain concerns, and we cannot afford to drive up the cost of health care for patients, or on the health care system," said Scott Whitaker, CEO of AdvaMed, the trade group which represents medical technology and device makers. "The reality is, any increased costs will be largely borne by taxpayer-funded health programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and the VA." Hospital trade groups have also been sounding the alarm, saying that tariffs could reduce the quality of care. "The AHA has and will continue to share with the Administration, disruptions in the availability of these critical devices — many of which are sourced internationally — have the potential to disrupt patient care," said Rick Pollack, the CEO of the American Hospital Association.

Tariffs Add Pricing Complexity

Trump in February imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, but later delayed duties on many items that fall under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. There has been no reprieve for goods from China. Trump’s new levies on imports from the country during his second term have brought the tariff rate up to 145%. Dozens of other countries face 10% tariffs after Trump delayed proposed steeper rates.

Medical Equipment Seller Squeezed

Many businesses can simply raise their prices to help offset increased costs from tariffs. That doesn’t apply to a range of hospitals and other organizations buying medical equipment. Many of those groups will have trouble passing on higher costs under current insurance coverage contracts, which they say have locked in prices for the year. "With the level of tariffs that we’re looking at in China, businesses are going to be completely upside down on these products … they can’t pass those costs on to the consumer," explained Casey Hite, CEO of Aeroflow Health, a firm which provides insurance-covered medical devices ranging from breast pumps for nursing mothers to CPAP machines for sleep apnea patients.

PPE Makers See Tariff Boost

On the opposite end of the tariff divide, U.S. companies that produce personal protective equipment have applauded the Trump administration’s latest levies on China. "I don’t know if it’s going to help the economy overall, but I do know that in our case, successive administrations — both Republican and Democratic — have recognized that these products are not competing on a level playing field," said Eric Axel, CEO of the American Medical Manufacturers Association, the trade group which represents PPE Makers. Analysts at Boston Consulting Group estimate roughly half of PPE used in the U.S. is produced in China, with roughly 10%-15% in Canada and Mexico.

The Challenges of U.S. Manufacturing

Trump has said he has imposed tariffs in large part to encourage manufacturing in the U.S. In the case of PPE, that may not happen. But near term, consulting firms say multinational producers are looking to shift manufacturing away from China to other countries with lower tariffs rather than bring it back to the U.S. "Managing that and the complexity there becomes super hard," explained Vikram Aggarwal, a BCG managing director and partner. For American-based medical device and protective gear manufacturers, one strategy now is to shift international production to Mexico and Canada, where they can potentially secure exemptions for products made under USMCA.

Impact on Major Medical Technology and Device Makers

Many of the major medical technology and device makers produce many of their goods in the U.S., but do have multiple points for manufacturing internationally. Analysts at Canaccord Genuity note Zimmer Biomet and Stryker, two of the largest makers of knee replacements, have dozens of facilities across North America, Europe, and Asia that help them navigate tariffs, but will still face a financial impact. Johnson & Johnson calculates that its MedTech division, which produces orthopedic and cardiac implants, could face a $400 million dollar tariff headwind this year, due in large part to the magnitude of duties on Chinese imports, as well as levies on non-USMCA compliant imports from Canada and Mexico.

Conclusion

The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have created a divide in the medical community, with device makers pushing for a new carve out and PPE makers benefiting from the barriers. The duties could increase costs for hospitals and patients, reduce access to critical equipment and care, and disrupt the supply chain. While some companies may shift production to countries with lower tariffs, others may face financial impacts. The situation highlights the complexity of international trade and the need for careful consideration of the effects of tariffs on different industries and stakeholders.

FAQs

Q: What are the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on medical devices and protective gear?
A: The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on medical devices and protective gear range from 10% to 145%, depending on the country of origin and the type of product.
Q: How will the tariffs affect hospitals and patients?
A: The tariffs could increase costs for hospitals and patients, reduce access to critical equipment and care, and disrupt the supply chain.
Q: Which companies will be most affected by the tariffs?
A: Device makers, such as Zimmer Biomet and Stryker, and companies that produce PPE, such as Altor Safety, will be most affected by the tariffs.
Q: Will the tariffs encourage manufacturing in the U.S.?
A: The tariffs may not encourage manufacturing in the U.S., as companies may shift production to countries with lower tariffs rather than bring it back to the U.S.
Q: What is the estimated impact of the tariffs on Johnson & Johnson’s MedTech division?
A: The estimated impact of the tariffs on Johnson & Johnson’s MedTech division is a $400 million dollar tariff headwind this year.

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Global Trends and Politics

Global Labor Updates and What They Mean for Workers

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Global Labor Updates and What They Mean for Workers

The global labor movement updates are witnessing significant changes, with international organizations and governments implementing new policies to protect workers’ rights. The labor market is experiencing a shift towards more flexible and remote work arrangements, with the rise of the gig economy and digital platforms. As the world grapples with the challenges of globalization, regional labor trends are becoming increasingly important.

Regional Labor Market Trends

The regional labor market trends vary significantly, with different countries and regions experiencing unique challenges and opportunities. In Europe, the labor market is characterized by a high level of job security and social protection, with a strong emphasis on workers’ rights and collective bargaining. In contrast, the labor market in Asia is marked by rapid economic growth and urbanization, with a growing demand for skilled workers.

European Labor Market

The European labor market is facing significant challenges, including high unemployment rates in some countries and a shortage of skilled workers in certain sectors. The European Union (EU) has implemented policies to address these challenges, including the creation of a European Labor Authority to promote fair labor practices and protect workers’ rights. For example, in 2020, the EU introduced a new directive on transparent and predictable working conditions, which aims to improve working conditions for workers and promote fair competition between companies.

Asian Labor Market

The Asian labor market is experiencing rapid growth, with countries such as China and India emerging as major economic powers. The region is home to a large and growing workforce, with a high demand for skilled workers in sectors such as technology and manufacturing. However, the labor market in Asia is also characterized by poor working conditions, low wages, and limited social protection. For instance, in 2019, a report by the International Labor Organization (ILO) highlighted the prevalence of forced labor and human trafficking in the Asian garment industry, with many workers facing exploitation and abuse.

Global Labor Standards

Global labor standards are essential for promoting fair labor practices and protecting workers’ rights. The ILO has established a set of core labor standards, including the right to freedom of association, the right to collective bargaining, and the prohibition of forced labor and child labor. These standards have been adopted by many countries, but their implementation and enforcement vary significantly. For example, in 2018, the ILO launched a global campaign to end child labor, which aims to eliminate child labor by 2025.

International Labor Organization (ILO)

The ILO is a specialized agency of the United Nations, responsible for promoting social and economic justice by setting international labor standards. The ILO has 187 member states, and its conventions and recommendations provide a framework for countries to implement labor laws and policies. The ILO also provides technical assistance and support to countries to help them implement its standards and promote fair labor practices. For instance, in 2020, the ILO provided technical assistance to the government of Bangladesh to improve labor inspection and enforcement in the garment industry.

Global Supply Chains

Global supply chains are complex and often involve multiple countries and companies. The production of goods and services often involves a network of suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors, which can make it difficult to ensure fair labor practices throughout the supply chain. However, many companies are now taking steps to promote fair labor practices in their supply chains, including implementing codes of conduct and monitoring labor conditions. For example, in 2019, the fashion brand H&M launched a transparency initiative, which aims to promote fair labor practices and transparency in its supply chain.

Regional Labor Disputes

Regional labor disputes can have significant consequences for workers, companies, and the economy. Labor disputes can arise from a range of issues, including wages, working conditions, and job security. In some cases, labor disputes can lead to strikes, lockouts, and other forms of industrial action. For instance, in 2019, a labor dispute between workers and management at the General Motors plant in South Korea resulted in a strike, which lasted for several weeks and disrupted production.

Collective Bargaining

Collective bargaining is an essential tool for promoting fair labor practices and resolving labor disputes. Collective bargaining involves negotiations between workers and employers to establish wages, working conditions, and other terms and conditions of employment. Collective bargaining can help to promote fair labor practices, improve working conditions, and reduce labor disputes. For example, in 2020, the union representing workers at the Volkswagen plant in Germany negotiated a new collective agreement, which included a significant wage increase and improved working conditions.

Strike Action

Strike action can be an effective way for workers to negotiate with employers and promote fair labor practices. Strike action involves workers refusing to work, often in response to a labor dispute or to protest against poor working conditions. Strike action can be an effective way to bring attention to labor issues and to pressure employers to negotiate. For instance, in 2018, a strike by workers at the Amazon warehouse in Germany resulted in the company agreeing to improve working conditions and pay.

Conclusion

In conclusion, regional labor trends and global labor standards are essential for promoting fair labor practices and protecting workers’ rights. The labor market is experiencing significant changes, with the rise of the gig economy and digital platforms. International organizations and governments are implementing new policies to protect workers’ rights, and companies are taking steps to promote fair labor practices in their supply chains. However, there is still much work to be done to ensure that all workers are treated with dignity and respect.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

 

What is the International Labor Organization (ILO)?

The ILO is a specialized agency of the United Nations, responsible for promoting social and economic justice by setting international labor standards.

What are global labor standards?

Global labor standards are a set of principles and guidelines that promote fair labor practices and protect workers’ rights, including the right to freedom of association, the right to collective bargaining, and the prohibition of forced labor and child labor.

What is collective bargaining?

Collective bargaining involves negotiations between workers and employers to establish wages, working conditions, and other terms and conditions of employment.

What is strike action?

Strike action involves workers refusing to work, often in response to a labor dispute or to protest against poor working conditions.

How can companies promote fair labor practices in their supply chains?

Companies can promote fair labor practices in their supply chains by implementing codes of conduct, monitoring labor conditions, and engaging with suppliers and stakeholders to promote fair labor practices.

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Global Trends and Politics

United Airlines Q1 2025 Earnings Report

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United Airlines Q1 2025 Earnings Report

Introduction to United Airlines’ Earnings Report

A United Airlines Boeing 767 passenger aircraft approaches Newark Liberty International Airport as trucks travel near the Port Jersey Container Terminal in Jersey City, New Jersey, on April 8, 2025. United Airlines maintained its full-year forecast on Tuesday but took an unusual step of offering a second forecast should the U.S. slip into a recession, calling the economy "impossible to predict." Either way, it expects to turn a profit.

First-Quarter Earnings

The carrier warned alongside its first-quarter earnings that a recession could drive down profits this year, but said booking trends are stable. The company left in place expectations issued in January for adjusted earnings per share of $11.50 to $13.50, but said that in a recession, it would expect to earn between $7 per share and $9 per share on an adjusted basis. "The Company’s outlook is dependent on the macro environment which the Company believes is impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence," it said in a securities filing.

Flight Capacity and Demand

United Airlines said Tuesday that it plans to cut flights starting this summer to match disappointing domestic travel demand while bookings for pricier, international trips remain strong. The carrier plans to trim domestic capacity by about 4% starting in the third quarter. Rival Delta Air Lines is also slowing its growth plans this year. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the airline "will continue to execute our multiyear plan that has allowed United to thrive in any demand environment." "It has given us industry-leading margins in the good times and we expect to expand our lead further in challenging economic times," he said in an earnings release.

Financial Performance

For the first quarter, United Airlines swung to a $387 million profit, or $1.16 a share, from a $124 million loss, or a loss of 38 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share, which exclude one-time gains related to aircraft sale-leasebacks, outpaced Wall Street’s expectations of 76 cents per share. Unit revenue for domestic flights fell 3.9% from last year during the first quarter, while unit sales from international routes rose more than 5%. Revenue of $13.21 billion was up more than 5% from a year ago, and came in slightly below the $13.26 billion that analysts expected.

Outlook and Bookings

Future bookings over the past two weeks have been stable, the company said, adding that premium-cabin bookings are up 17% from the same point last year and international bookings are up 5%, though the carrier did not provide a figure on domestic coach-cabin demand. United Airlines said it expects to post second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.25 to $4.25, in line with estimates, citing strong demand for premium-cabin bookings and international travel.

Key Financial Figures

Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended March 31 compared with what Wall Street was expecting:

  • Earnings per share: 91 cents adjusted vs. 76 cents expected
  • Revenue: $13.21 billion vs. $13.26 billion expected

Conclusion

The latest trend shows how profitable airlines such as United and Delta are capitalizing on demand from travelers willing to pay more for pricier seats and other higher-end products, even as economic concerns weigh on consumer sentiment. Delta last week said it could not reaffirm its full-year outlook, citing uncertainty in the market.

FAQs

Q: What is United Airlines’ forecast for the full year?
A: United Airlines maintained its full-year forecast but offered a second forecast in case of a recession, expecting to earn between $7 and $9 per share.
Q: How will United Airlines adjust its flight capacity?
A: The airline plans to cut flights starting this summer, trimming domestic capacity by about 4% starting in the third quarter.
Q: What are the key financial figures for United Airlines’ first quarter?
A: The airline reported adjusted earnings of 91 cents per share and revenue of $13.21 billion.
Q: How are bookings trending for United Airlines?
A: Future bookings have been stable, with premium-cabin bookings up 17% and international bookings up 5% from the same point last year.

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