Killer App 2025

No Artificial General Intelligence and the Singularity in 2025

What are AGI and the Singularity?

Artificial General Intelligence refers to an advanced AI that can think, learn, and solve problems across a wide range of tasks, just like a human. The Singularity is the idea of AI surpassing human intelligence, improving itself endlessly, and causing massive, unpredictable changes in society.

My prediction: we wont see any of this in 2025

Let’s dig into the technology to understand why we are not even close.

Sentence Completion is Not Intelligence or AGI

Generative AI, like OpenAI’s GPT models, can hold human-like conversations. That sounds amazing. But it is limited to spotting and repeating patterns. ChatGPT and similar systems are based on so-called large language models. They work by predicting the most statistically probable next word or token based on their training data. One example:

• Input: “Life is like a box of…”
• Prediction: “chocolates” (thanks to Forrest Gump).

This isn’t real understanding—it’s just pattern matching. Generative AI doesn’t “consider” other options like “box of surprises” It might seem intelligent because it can give polished responses, but it’s no more self-aware than a chess computer that doesn’t care if it loses a game.

OpenAI’s O1: Isn’t That the First Step for AGI?

No, it’s not. Let’s see what it is. OpenAI’s O1, released in 2024, does not directly answer a given question. Instead, it creates a plan to determine the best way to answer it. It then critiques its response, improves it, and continues refining. This chained output is truly impressive.

2025 Will See Many of Those ‘Chains’ But Not AGI

I recently launched an eCornell online course to train students to think about products using AI and data. To make this rather technical AI and product course accessible as a no-code course, I created the same iterative process as we see with o1.

The Barriers to Get to AGI

• Humans can think fast and instinctively (System 1) or slowly and logically (System 2). AI only works through patterns, missing this balance.
• AI struggles with context and often misses important details humans pick up naturally.
• Current AI builds outputs on previous ones (called autoregressive models), so mistakes can snowball.

What Will Happen in 2025?

In 2025, we’ll see more narrow AI solutions integrated into chains similar to OpenAI’s "o1" approach. These systems will be designed to excel at specific tasks and, when combined, will enhance productivity and surpass human performance in many areas. This development will be exciting, but it’s important to emphasize that these advancements will not constitute AGI. We should focus on the real risks and opportunities of AI rather than getting sidetracked by AGI debates and whether AGI will replace us.

And What’s With Sam’s Claim of AGI?

It’s mostly marketing. Big, bold claims grab attention. The promise of AGI grabs attention. On Friday, I’ll share my next prediction for 2025, which focuses on the biggest application of large language models. Altman’s prediction might seem over the top, but it’s the right strategy for what I see as the biggest application or the so called “killer application.” Stay tuned.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we will not see Artificial General Intelligence or the Singularity in 2025. Instead, we will see more narrow AI solutions integrated into chains similar to OpenAI’s "o1" approach. These systems will enhance productivity and surpass human performance in many areas, but they will not constitute AGI.

FAQs

Q: What is Artificial General Intelligence?
A: Artificial General Intelligence refers to an advanced AI that can think, learn, and solve problems across a wide range of tasks, just like a human.

Q: What is the Singularity?
A: The Singularity is the idea of AI surpassing human intelligence, improving itself endlessly, and causing massive, unpredictable changes in society.

Q: Why won’t we see AGI in 2025?
A: We won’t see AGI in 2025 because it requires significant technological advancements, including the ability to think fast and instinctively, understand context, and build outputs on previous ones without mistakes.