One in three Manhattan condo owners lost money when they sold in the last year

Despite the common perception of Manhattan’s real estate market being highly lucrative, a recent report from Brown Harris Stevens reveals that over a third of condo apartments sold in the area over the past year were sold at a loss. This trend is particularly surprising given the steady stream of headlines about record-breaking sales and soaring prices in Manhattan. However, according to the report, the median price per square foot for Manhattan condos has remained essentially flat over the past decade.

The report’s findings indicate that one in three condo resales between July 2024 and June 2025 resulted in a loss for the seller. When factoring in inflation, transaction costs, and renovations, the share of losses is likely even higher. Real estate analysts note that co-op prices have generally followed a similar trend, with prices remaining stagnant or decreasing slightly. Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, an appraisal and real estate research firm, observes that “for the last decade, Manhattan has essentially been moving sideways.”

Understanding the Manhattan Real Estate Market

The long-term price weakness in Manhattan stands in stark contrast to the rest of the country, where home prices have increased substantially since the pandemic, resulting in a widespread affordability crisis. According to Redfin, only 2% of home sellers nationally who purchased homes before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss. In contrast, Manhattan’s market has been characterized by a lack of significant growth, with the median price for Manhattan sales in the third quarter being $1.2 million, while the average is just under $2 million.

Condo owners who bought before 2010 have fared the best, with median gains ranging from 29% to 45% for those who sold over the past year. However, those who bought between 2011 and 2015 saw modest gains of around 11%, while those who bought after 2016 were more likely to sell at a loss. In fact, half of the buyers who bought between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss, and those who bought between 2021 and 2024 saw slim gains.

Factors Contributing to the Trend

The reasons for Manhattan’s “lost decade” in condo prices are complex and multifaceted. The cap on state and local tax deductions, which began in 2018, put pressure on prices and demand. The 2019 rent law also had an impact, as did the migration of some higher earners to Florida during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the population and demand quickly rebounded, and the top end of the market has continued to perform well, with those who bought and sold apartments for $10 million or more making double-digit profits.

Brokers and analysts attribute the continued gains in the luxury market to the increased concentration of wealth at the top, rising stock markets, and ceaseless demand from those who are less affected by economic and market cycles. The ability to buy in cash, independent of interest rates, has also powered gains in the luxury market. Two-thirds of apartment deals done in the third quarter were done in cash, far above the historical average of around 53%.

Opportunities and Challenges in the Market

Despite the current trends, brokers remain bullish about the Manhattan real estate market. Jared Antin, executive director at Brown Harris Stevens, notes that “while some people may have lost money on the deals over the decade, the losses were negligible. It speaks to the blue chip nature of the Manhattan market.” Sellers who bought during the dip in 2020 and early 2021 could also see profits when they start to sell. However, with median prices hovering near all-time highs and uncertainty around the upcoming mayoral election, many potential buyers prefer to stay on the sidelines and rent, even if they can afford to buy.

The number of households in New York City making more than $1 million a year who are renting has more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, to 5,661, according to a report from RentCafe. Signed contracts for high-end apartments priced at $4 million or more fell 39% in September, according to Olshan Realty, following increases in August and July. Brokers blame a rapid decline in inventory and lack of new supply from condo developments rather than a decline in demand or fears about the upcoming mayoral election.