United Airlines (UAL) 4Q 2025 earnings

United Airlines has announced that it is on track to achieve record earnings this year, driven by strong demand for travel. The airline’s sales of premium seats, business travel, and no-frills tickets have been robust in recent weeks. This positive outlook is a testament to the airline industry’s resilience and ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences.

The carrier expects to generate adjusted earnings per share of between $12 and $14 this year, which is in line with analyst expectations of $13.16. For the first quarter, United forecasts per-share earnings of $1 to $1.50, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.13 a share. This upward trend is a result of the airline’s strategic efforts to enhance its services and appeal to a wider range of customers.

Industry Performance

United Airlines is not alone in its positive outlook, as its rival Delta Air Lines has also forecasted potential record earnings for the year. Together, these two carriers accounted for almost all of the US airline industry’s profit in the first nine months of 2025. As other airlines prepare to report their earnings later this month, it will be interesting to see how they compare to United and Delta’s performance.

The airline industry has been experiencing a shift towards premium services, with many carriers investing in new cabins and amenities to attract high-paying customers. United’s premium revenue rose 9% in the fourth quarter and 11% for the full year over 2024, demonstrating the success of this strategy. Additionally, the airline’s restrictive basic-economy ticket sales, which compete with discount airlines, were up 7% in the last three months of 2025.

Financial Highlights

United’s unit revenue fell 1.6% in the fourth quarter compared to last year, but the airline’s overall revenue was $15.4 billion, in line with expectations. The carrier’s fourth-quarter profit rose 6% from a year earlier to $1.04 billion, or $3.19 a share, while capacity increased 6.5% from the same period in 2024. Adjusting for one-time items, United posted earnings of $1.01 billion, or $3.10 a share.

United CEO Scott Kirby has expressed confidence in the airline’s growth plan, citing the fact that “customers are choosing us.” The airline’s ability to attract and retain customers has been key to its success, and its focus on premium services and amenities is likely to continue driving growth in the future.

The longest-ever government shutdown in the fourth quarter had a negative impact on United’s pretax results, with a loss of $250 million. However, the airline’s executives noted that travel recovered quickly after the shutdown, and the carrier was able to bounce back from the disruption.

Overall, United Airlines’ strong performance is a positive sign for the airline industry, and its focus on premium services and customer experience is likely to continue driving growth and profitability in the future.