Used vehicle prices jump ahead of spring selling season optimism

Used vehicle prices moved higher in February as dealerships increased purchases to prepare for what many expect to be a strong spring sales season.

New data from Cox Automotive shows that its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 4% in February compared with the same time last year. The index, which tracks prices of vehicles sold through Manheim’s wholesale auctions across the United States, reached 212.3. Prices also increased 0.8% from January, marking the highest level recorded since September 2023.

The Manheim index is widely followed within the automotive industry because it reflects wholesale pricing trends that often influence the retail prices consumers eventually pay at dealerships.

Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive, said the start of 2026 has shown steady demand in the wholesale used-vehicle market. Dealers have been actively purchasing vehicles at auction, which is reflected in higher sales conversion rates.

According to Robb, prices climbed more than expected throughout February, particularly in the latter half of the month as dealer demand strengthened.

Much of that buying activity has been driven by expectations that consumers will receive larger tax refunds this year, which typically boosts vehicle purchases in late winter and early spring.

However, broader economic uncertainty and global tensions could still influence consumer behavior. Robb noted that the ongoing conflict involving Iran may introduce short-term risks for the economy.

Rising fuel costs could also play a role. Higher gas prices tend to reduce consumer spending in some areas, including large purchases such as vehicles.

Robb explained that these factors may temporarily slow the momentum created by the tax refund season. The impact may be most noticeable early in the month, with demand potentially strengthening again as March progresses.

Although used vehicle prices have moderated from their peak during the pandemic, they remain elevated compared with historical averages.

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions and strong consumer demand drove used vehicle prices to record levels. Limited inventories of new vehicles pushed many buyers into the used market, intensifying competition and raising prices.

Since then, supply conditions have gradually improved, helping prices ease from their highs.

According to Cox Automotive, the average listing price for a used vehicle in January was about $25,533. That is significantly lower than the more than $28,000 average seen in 2022, though still higher than typical pre-pandemic levels.

Wholesale prices, like those tracked in the Manheim index, usually influence retail pricing trends with a delay. When auction prices rise, consumers often see similar increases at dealership lots in the months that follow.

Looking ahead, Cox Automotive expects wholesale used vehicle prices to remain relatively stable this year. Earlier forecasts from the company projected that the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index would finish 2026 roughly 2% higher than its level in December 2025.

For now, dealers appear to be positioning themselves for a busy spring season, with steady demand and tax refund spending expected to support used vehicle sales in the months ahead.