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Global Trends and Politics

Tourists Cross Borders, But in Opposite Directions

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Tourists Cross Borders, But in Opposite Directions

Introduction to the Trend

Americans are traveling abroad in droves, while the number of visitors to the United States is falling. This emerging trend in the $11 trillion global travel industry is raising concerns for the U.S. travel industry, which brings in about $1 trillion a year. According to data from the International Trade Administration, foreign visitors to the United States by air fell nearly 10% in March from the same month a year earlier and nearly 13% from before the pandemic to 4.54 million people.

The Imbalance in Travel

The imbalance between Americans traveling abroad and foreigners visiting the U.S. could further deepen the more than $50 billion gap between what the U.S. generates through travel and tourism services and what Americans spend abroad. Including land border crossings, inbound visitors to the U.S. fell 14% in March from last year. This trend could lead to a loss of $21 billion in exports tied to travel, as travel spending from abroad within the U.S. is counted as an export.

Factors Contributing to the Decline

Several factors are contributing to the decline in international visitors to the U.S., including an on-again, off-again trade war, high-profile detentions of visitors, and a strong U.S. dollar. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric about taking over countries like Canada and travel warnings have also not helped to drum up demand from international travelers. The visa-approval process is another area that needs to be streamlined, according to American Airlines CEO Robert Isom.

Impact on the Economy

The decline in foreigners’ travel spend in the U.S. could subtract around 0.1% from gross domestic product this year, according to JPMorgan. This points to potentially another channel to consider in assessing the effect of tariffs on economic activity. Concerns around detentions of foreign visitors, sometimes by accident, are only compounding this effect.

The Rise of International Travel by Americans

On the other hand, U.S. citizens flying abroad increased 1.6% from last March and are up 22% from 2019 to 6.56 million travelers. Many Americans are considering international travel more than domestic travel, partly because they want to splash out on college graduation trips since their kids largely missed out on high school commencement celebrations during Covid.

Industry Insights

United Airlines said that advanced bookings earlier this month are stable, and premium-cabin sales are up 17%, while international demand has risen 5%. Delta’s president, Glen Hauenstein, is optimistic that the trend will continue, and said cash sales for international travel are coming in ahead of the same point last year. Many working Americans and retirees are on edge with recent market tumult, but wealthy and aging travelers, particularly in the pricey front of the plane, are helping to offset that.

Conclusion

The trend of Americans traveling abroad while foreigners visit the U.S. less often is a concern for the U.S. travel industry. Factors such as trade wars, detentions, and a strong U.S. dollar are contributing to the decline in international visitors. However, the rise of international travel by Americans is helping to soften the blow. The industry needs to find ways to make the U.S. a more welcoming destination for international travelers.

FAQs

Q: Why are fewer foreigners visiting the U.S.?
A: Several factors are contributing to the decline, including an on-again, off-again trade war, high-profile detentions of visitors, and a strong U.S. dollar.
Q: How is the decline in international visitors affecting the U.S. economy?
A: The decline could subtract around 0.1% from gross domestic product this year and lead to a loss of $21 billion in exports tied to travel.
Q: Why are Americans traveling abroad more?
A: Many Americans are considering international travel more than domestic travel, partly because they want to splash out on college graduation trips since their kids largely missed out on high school commencement celebrations during Covid.
Q: How are airlines responding to the trend?
A: Airlines such as United and Delta are seeing an increase in international demand and are optimistic that the trend will continue.
Q: What can be done to make the U.S. a more welcoming destination for international travelers?
A: Streamlining the visa-approval process and improving the overall travel experience are some ways to make the U.S. a more welcoming destination for international travelers.

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Global Trends and Politics

Battle Over Jimmy Buffett Estate

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Battle Over Jimmy Buffett Estate

Introduction to the Jimmy Buffett Estate Battle

A court battle over the late singer Jimmy Buffett’s $275 million estate has highlighted the growing litigation over the trillions of dollars in wealth being passed down to spouses and families, experts said. Jimmy Buffett’s widow, Jane Buffett, filed a petition last week in a Los Angeles court to remove her co-trustee, Richard Mozenter, from the marital trust created to support her after the singer’s death in 2023.

Background of the Dispute

Jane Buffett, who married Jimmy in 1977, alleged that Mozenter has been "openly hostile and adversarial" toward her and has refused to give her details on the trust and its financials. She alleged Mozenter is collecting "excessive fees" of $1.7 million a year and that he’s mismanaging the trust assets, projecting income of only $2 million, implying annual returns of less than 1%. Mozenter has filed his own lawsuit in Palm Beach County, Florida, alleging that Jane has been "completely uncooperative" in his efforts to manage the trust.

Jimmy Buffett’s Estate Plan

Jimmy Buffett planned carefully for the afterlife. His will, first written more than 30 years ago and amended in 2017 and again in 2023, directed that most of his assets be placed in a marital trust for Jane. The trust was created "for the wife’s sole benefit of her lifetime," according to legal filings. The three children they shared — Savannah, Delaney, and Cameron — are the so-called remainder beneficiaries of the marital trust, which means they will receive any remaining assets left after Jane’s death.

Assets in the Estate

The assets Buffett left were substantial. A successful businessman and entrepreneur, Buffett built a brand empire and merchandising business that far surpassed his song rights and touring. According to the filings, the assets in the estate included $34.5 million of real property; $15 million of equity in a company called Strange Bird Inc., which held Buffett’s interest in various planes; $2 million in musical equipment; $5 million in vehicles; and $12 million in other investments. One of the largest assets is Buffett’s stake in Margaritaville, the chain of restaurants, bars, hotels, and merchandising that commercialized the Buffett lifestyle.

The Role of Co-Trustees in Estate Planning

Trust lawyers said the case is part of a growing wave of lawsuits related to inheritances and trusts. Over $100 trillion of wealth is expected to be passed down from older generations to spouses and families over the next 25 years, according to Cerulli Associates. More wealth being passed down means more litigation, since families often fight over who gets what. The Buffett case has reflected a different, but equally common, source of disputes: dueling trustees.

Potential Outcomes of the Case

Since the lawsuits were filed in different states, courts will first have to decide where the case will be heard. After that, a judge will start arguments and ultimately decide a path forward. Attorneys said judges have typically sided with the outside trustee (in this case Mozenter). Yet increasingly, they have been siding with spouses — which could mean Mozenter is removed. More likely, attorneys said, a judge will determine that the relationship between Mozenter and Jane is unworkable and name a new, professional or corporate trustee from a trust company or bank to replace them both.

Lessons for Families Planning Wealth Transfers

The Buffett case offers two important lessons for families planning wealth transfers. First, they said wealth holders should communicate the plans for their estates before they die so no one is surprised. If Buffett had explained the co-trustee roles to both Jane and Mozenter, perhaps tensions would have been minimized. The second lesson is that friends or business associates don’t always make good trustees. While today’s wealthy often name a trusted friend to a family trust, the trustee may have a different relationship with the beneficiary and can see themselves as carrying out the wishes of the descendant — which is not the job of a trustee.

Conclusion

The Jimmy Buffett estate battle highlights the importance of careful estate planning and communication. As the case moves forward, it will be important to watch how the court navigates the complex issues involved. The outcome of the case will have significant implications for the management of the Buffett estate and the distribution of its assets.

FAQs

Q: What is the estimated value of Jimmy Buffett’s estate?
A: The estimated value of Jimmy Buffett’s estate is $275 million.

Q: Who are the beneficiaries of the marital trust created by Jimmy Buffett?
A: The beneficiaries of the marital trust are Jane Buffett, Jimmy’s widow, and their three children, Savannah, Delaney, and Cameron, who are the remainder beneficiaries.

Q: What is the role of a co-trustee in estate planning?
A: A co-trustee is appointed to manage the trust alongside the beneficiary, in this case, Jane Buffett. The co-trustee is responsible for making decisions about the management of the trust assets.

Q: What are the potential outcomes of the case?
A: The potential outcomes of the case include the removal of Richard Mozenter as co-trustee, the appointment of a new professional or corporate trustee, or a continuation of the current arrangement with modifications.

Q: What lessons can be learned from the Jimmy Buffett estate battle?
A: The Jimmy Buffett estate battle highlights the importance of careful estate planning, communication, and the selection of appropriate trustees. It also emphasizes the need for clear roles and responsibilities for co-trustees and the importance of considering the impact of estate planning decisions on family relationships.

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Global Trends and Politics

Employee-Focused Turnaround Plan

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Employee-Focused Turnaround Plan

Introduction to Starbucks’ Turnaround Strategy

Customers order at a Starbucks in Manhattan Beach, California, on July 19, 2024. As Starbucks aims to bring back customers and assuage investors with its turnaround strategy, it is also winning over its store managers with promises to add more seating inside cafes and promote internally.

The "Back to Starbucks" Strategy

Since CEO Brian Niccol’s first week at the company, he’s been pledging to bring the company "back to Starbucks" to lift sluggish sales. That goal was in full view at the company’s Leadership Experience, a three-day event in Las Vegas for more than 14,000 store leaders this week. Starbucks unveiled a new coffee called the 1971 Roast, a callback to the year that its first location opened at Pike Place in Seattle. The finalists at Starbucks’ first-ever Global Barista Championships referred to "back to Starbucks" as they prepared drinks for judges. Even the wifi password was "backtostarbucks!".

Winning Back Customers and Investors

To investors, Niccol has already presented a multi-part strategy that involves retooling the company’s marketing strategy, improving staffing in cafes, fixing the chain’s mobile app issues and making its locations cozier. The company also laid off roughly 1,100 corporate workers earlier this year, saying it aimed to operate more efficiently and reduce redundancies. Starbucks shares have climbed nearly 20% since April, and are trading just shy of where they were after a nearly 25% spike the day Niccol was announced as CEO.

Regaining Faith Among Employees

While Starbucks has taken major steps to win back customers and Wall Street, it’s also trying to regain faith among its employees. Staffers have had concerns about hours and workloads for years, sparking a broad union push across the U.S. To excite the chain’s store managers, Starbucks executives’ pitch this week focused on giving them more control. Before launching new drinks, like a protein-packed cold foam, the company is first testing them in five stores to gain feedback from baristas.

A Culture Shift

New Initiatives

When the chain increases its staffing this summer, managers will have more input on how many baristas they need. And next year, most North American stores will add an assistant manager to their rosters. "You are the leaders of Starbucks. Your focus on the customer is critical. Your leadership is critical. And as you return to your coffeehouses, please remember: coffee, community, opportunity, all the good that follows," Niccol said on Tuesday.

Returning to Starbucks’ Roots

Niccol’s "back to Starbucks" strategy centers on the idea that the company’s culture has faltered. Its Leadership Experience, typically held every couple of years, was the first since 2019 — three CEOs ago. "We are a business of connection and humanity," Niccol said on Tuesday afternoon, addressing a crowd of more than 14,000 managers. "Great people make great things happen." As more customers order their lattes via the company’s app, its cafes have lost their identity as a "third place" for people to hang out and sip their drinks.

Promoting Internally and Adding Seating

To return to Starbucks’ prior culture, the company is unwinding previous decisions – like removing seats from its cafes. In recent years, the chain has removed 30,000 seats from its locations. Those renovations have irritated both customers and employees; the manager of Niccol’s local Starbucks in Newport Beach, California, even asked him to remove her store from its renovation list because she wanted to keep the seating, according to Niccol. "We’re going to put those seats back in," Niccol said, bringing a big wave of applause from the audience.

Staffing and Union Concerns

He earned more applause from the audience when discussing the chain’s plans to promote internally as it eventually adds 10,000 more locations in the U.S. Although historically roughly 60% of Starbucks store managers have been internal promotions, the company wants to raise that to 90% for its retail leadership roles. Thousands of new cafes means 1,000 more district managers, 100 regional directors and 14 regional vice presidents for the company – and more upward career mobility for its store leaders. Staffing more broadly has been a concern for Starbucks and its employees, fueling a wave of union elections across hundreds its stores.

Schultz’s Stamp of Approval

Underscoring the challenges Niccol faces in recapturing the company’s brand, the two speakers who scored the most applause from store managers are no longer actively involved in the company. Former chairwoman Mellody Hobson scored standing ovations during both her entry and exit onto the arena’s stage. Hobson, wiping tears from her eyes, thanked the Starbucks employees whom she said always made her feel welcome in their stores. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz also earned standing ovations from store managers. Schultz, the three-time CEO who grew Starbucks from a small chain into a coffee powerhouse, made a surprise appearance at the Leadership Experience on Wednesday morning.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Starbucks is taking significant steps to regain its footing and win back customers, investors, and employees. The company’s "back to Starbucks" strategy, led by CEO Brian Niccol, aims to recapture the company’s culture and identity as a "third place" for people to connect and enjoy their coffee. With promises to add more seating, promote internally, and improve staffing, Starbucks is working to address concerns and criticisms from all stakeholders.

FAQs

Q: What is Starbucks’ "back to Starbucks" strategy?
A: The "back to Starbucks" strategy is a plan to recapture the company’s culture and identity as a "third place" for people to connect and enjoy their coffee. It involves retooling the company’s marketing strategy, improving staffing, fixing mobile app issues, and making locations cozier.
Q: How is Starbucks planning to promote internally?
A: Starbucks wants to raise the percentage of internal promotions for retail leadership roles to 90%. The company plans to add 10,000 more locations in the U.S., which will create more opportunities for upward career mobility for store leaders.
Q: What is the Green Apron labor model?
A: The Green Apron labor model is a new staffing model that Starbucks is rolling out to improve service times and boost traffic. As part of the model, managers will have more input on how much labor their store needs.
Q: Who is Howard Schultz and what is his role in Starbucks?
A: Howard Schultz is the former CEO of Starbucks who grew the company from a small chain into a coffee powerhouse. He made a surprise appearance at the Leadership Experience and expressed his support for Niccol’s "back to Starbucks" strategy.
Q: What is the significance of the 1971 Roast coffee?
A: The 1971 Roast coffee is a new coffee launched by Starbucks as a callback to the year that its first location opened at Pike Place in Seattle. It is part of the company’s efforts to reconnect with its heritage and culture.

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Global Trends and Politics

Boeing Dreamliner Crash Overshadows Paris Air Show Amid Military Escalations

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Boeing Dreamliner Crash Overshadows Paris Air Show Amid Military Escalations

Introduction to the Paris Air Show

The Boeing 787-9 civil jet airplane of Vietnam Airlines performs its flight display at the 51st Paris International Airshow in Le Bourget near Paris, France. Kelly Ortberg’s first Paris Air Show as Boeing CEO was set to be relatively upbeat. Under his leadership that began in August, the company has made strides in ramping up production of its bestselling 737 Max jets, increasing cash-generating deliveries of new planes, and indicating that it’s turning a corner from a series of manufacturing and safety crises and years of lost ground to rival Airbus.

Recent Developments and Challenges

Shares are up more than 13% this year, outpacing the S&P 500. But after an Air India flight crashed on Thursday, marking the first fatal air disaster of a Boeing Dreamliner, Ortberg canceled plans to go to the massive air show that begins on Sunday. The trade event is a big draw for the industry and is held every other year, alternating with the Farnborough Air Show in the U.K. Boeing, Airbus and other aerospace giants host champagne-flowing parties, hold flashy deal-signing ceremonies with executives flanked by model planes, and show off their new aircraft with extreme maneuvers for spectators below.

The Air India Crash and Its Aftermath

All but one of the 242 people aboard Air India Flight 171 were killed when the more than 11-year-old Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner that was headed for London on a sweltering day crashed into a medical student dining hall seconds after takeoff from Ahmedabad in western India. The sole survivor was an India-born British national in seat 11A. The cause of the crash is unknown and will take weeks or months to determine. Questions focus on how the plane so quickly and evenly lost altitude, appearing to glide into a fireball crash. Cockpit voice and data recorders, known as "black boxes," will provide key information.

Geopolitical Tensions and the Air Show

The crash isn’t the only outside factor changing the gathering in Paris. Shortly before the Paris Air Show was set to begin, Israel launched overnight missile strikes on Iran. Hours later, Iran launched drones toward Israeli territory. Airlines canceled flights, with jets in the air diverting or returning to their destinations, while hundreds of others skirted the airspace. The escalating tensions will make military budgets and spending an even bigger focus for the air show, but they also raise concerns about how conflicts and geopolitical tensions could impact demand for commercial air travel.

The Show Goes On

Despite the crash and other external concerns, Boeing, Airbus and Embraer are expected to lock in hundreds of airplane orders. Wait times for popular new aircraft models already stretch into the next decade with demand still strong. Boeing forecast on Saturday that the world will need 43,600 commercial airplanes over the next two decades, with emerging markets driving growth. It expects those markets will account for more than half of the world’s fleet in 2044, up from a 40% share last year.

Orders and Demand

Some of the order signings could come from previously undisclosed customers, though there are many new orders on the line, aviation analysts say. Ongoing issues, such as a lack of trained workers, have delayed deliveries of new planes, while on-again, off-again tariffs have raised concerns about more expensive aircraft and components. Pricing has also firmed up. A new Airbus A321neo was going for $65 million as of the end of April, up from $58 million at the start of 2023, while a new Boeing 737 Max 8 cost about $55.5 million in April, compared with $50.25 million in early 2023.

Return of the Big Jets

Airplane customers are going bigger as international travel continues to bring in money. "It used to be all about single-aisle orders," said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at aerospace consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory. Now, "everyone is booking these monster twin-aisle orders for international traffic." He said major international airlines like Turkish Airlines, Gulf carriers and others have expanded in recent years, competing for more global travelers, "slicing the pizza into smaller pieces."

Conclusion

The Paris Air Show is a significant event for the aviation industry, with major manufacturers like Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer expected to announce new orders and showcase their latest aircraft. Despite the challenges posed by the Air India crash and geopolitical tensions, the demand for commercial air travel remains strong, driven by emerging markets and the need for more efficient and capable aircraft.

FAQs

Q: What is the Paris Air Show?
A: The Paris Air Show is a major international aviation event held every other year, where aircraft manufacturers, airlines, and other industry players gather to showcase their latest products and announce new orders.
Q: What happened to the Air India flight?
A: An Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner crashed on takeoff from Ahmedabad in western India, killing all but one of the 242 people on board.
Q: How will the crash affect the Paris Air Show?
A: The crash has led to the cancellation of plans by Boeing’s CEO to attend the show, and may impact the tone and focus of the event.
Q: What are the geopolitical tensions affecting the air show?
A: The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about the impact of geopolitical tensions on demand for commercial air travel.
Q: What is the outlook for the aviation industry?
A: Despite challenges, the demand for commercial air travel remains strong, driven by emerging markets and the need for more efficient and capable aircraft.

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