Used vehicle prices expected to increase in 2026, Cox reports

Used Vehicle Prices Expected to Rise at a Stable Rate in 2026

The automotive market is poised for a relatively stable year in terms of used vehicle prices, according to a forecast by Cox Automotive, a leading auto data and insights firm. After experiencing significant fluctuations in recent years, particularly during the Covid-19 pandemic, used vehicle prices are expected to increase by 2% by the end of 2026, as tracked by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. This index monitors the prices of used vehicles sold at U.S. wholesale auctions, providing a benchmark for the industry.

The anticipated rise in used vehicle prices is a moderate increase compared to the previous two years, which saw minimal growth of 0.4% each year. This follows substantial declines of 7% and nearly 15% in 2023 and 2022, respectively, as the market adjusted from the inflated prices during the pandemic. In contrast, used vehicle prices had surged at historically high rates of 46.6% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2020. Despite the expected increase, used vehicle prices remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, although the overall stability in pricing is beneficial for potential car buyers.

Historical Context and Market Trends

Looking at the broader historical context, the average annual increase in the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index has been roughly 2% since 1998, excluding the outlier years of 2021 and 2022. This stability is reassuring for both buyers and sellers, as it indicates a return to more predictable market trends. However, pricing will continue to fluctuate month-to-month due to factors like seasonal selling patterns, with a typical monthly move in the index of about 0.2%. Understanding these trends can help consumers and dealers navigate the market more effectively.

The automotive market is also influenced by external factors, such as auto loan rates and consumer spending power. Encouragingly, new and used auto loan rates have decreased to their lowest level in a year, and the impending tax refunds are expected to boost consumer wallets. According to Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive’s interim chief economist, these positive indicators suggest stronger demand in the auto market as 2026 progresses. This could lead to a more dynamic and potentially favorable environment for those looking to purchase a vehicle.

Forecast for Used Vehicle Sales

Cox Automotive’s forecast extends beyond price trends, also predicting a slight decrease in used vehicle sales for 2026. The expected year-over-year decline of 0.9% would result in 38.3 million used vehicles sold, including 20.3 million retail sales, which represents a 0.7% decrease. While this might seem counterintuitive given the anticipated price stability and increased demand, it reflects the complex interplay of factors influencing the automotive market. As the year unfolds, it will be crucial to monitor how these predictions play out and how they impact both buyers and sellers in the used vehicle market.